Morocco''s seasons are characterised by mild and wet winters and hot and dry summers, as in other Mediterranean countries. However, the country also shows some geographical variation in its climate, ranging from more temperate areas in the north influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, to arid and desert-like areas in the southern and south-eastern provinces influenced by the Sahara Desert and the Atlantic Ocean.
The average annual temperature in Morocco increased by 1.7°C between 1971 and 2017. However, the increase varied significantly depending on geographical location and season. Geographically, the central-northern and northern areas saw the greatest increase in temperature, over 2°C in cities like Ojuda, Taza, Errachidia and BeniMelal. Seasonally, the warming was most pronounced from April to June, the hottest and driest months.
Climate models show that the rise in temperature continues in Morocco under all temperature pathways to the end of this century. Under a medium level of greenhouse gas concentration,1 the average annual temperature increase is projected to reach 1.5°C to 1.8°C in 2050, compared with the reference period of 1981-2018. Under a high-emissions scenario2 the average annual temperature rise could reach between 2°C to 3°C. If greenhouse gas emissions are not mitigated, Morocco could experience more frequent and intense heat waves.
Rising temperatures in Morocco have rapidly increased cooling degree days (CDDs) by an average of 3.5% per year over the past two decades, while heating degree days (HDDs) have diminished by an average of 2% per year since 2000. This could result in a notable increase in energy demand for cooling, which would outweigh a relatively small decrease in energy consumption for heating purposes. A hotter climate could strain the power system by driving rapid increases in the penetration of cooling devices in Morocco, from 9.3% in 2015 to up to 49% by 2030 in the residential sector.
To withstand rising peak demand in summer, Morocco is increasingly relying on its regional interconnections. Net imports of electricity increased from 2TWh in 2006 to 5.3TWh in 2016, which represented 14% of the country''s total electricity supply. Power imports from Spain have reached record highs in the last four years, causing net power purchases in June to jump to more than 200 GWh. The continuing increase in temperatures could require the expansion of existing interconnected networks, as well as the development of new interconnectors with Spain and Portugal.
Historical observations show that Morocco has become progressively more arid. Over the period 1961-2017 cumulative rainfall decreased by 16%, most notably in spring (down 43%) and winter (down 26%). Although the northwest region of Morocco has received annual average precipitation of up to 1200mm (the highest), the southeast of the country receives less than 50 mm per year on average. As a result of decreasing precipitation in the southern part of Morocco, the Sahara Desert is advancing.
The decrease in mean annual precipitation is projected to continue in Morocco. The decline ranges from 10% to 20% over the period 2036-2065 compared with 1981-2018 in the country as a whole, noting that there would be some regional variability. Over the long term, projections show 30% less precipitation in the centre of the country, while in the Sahara region (southern Morocco) precipitation increases by 5%.
Decreasing precipitation is raising concerns about droughts, which have increased in frequency, magnitude and duration. Climate projections also show more frequent and severe droughts in Morocco, especially in the central and southern regions. Although the country north of the Atlas Mountains currently has a temperate Mediterranean climate, almost all of Morocco is set to become drier and its climate transform into an arid one by the end of the 21st century.
Should greenhouse gas emissions be mitigated on time (Below 2°C)8 most hydropower plants in Morocco would see a neutral or slightly drier climate by 2100. According to the IEA''s assessment, the decrease in the hydropower capacity factor could be limited to 10% between 2060 and 2099 compared with 2010-2019, if global warming is kept below 2°C.
Morocco''s efforts to replace coal power plants with natural gas combined-cycle power plants could contribute to power system resilience against water stress. Morocco plans to install an additional 2400MW of natural gas power plant capacity by 2030 and completely replace coal-fired plants by 2050. Given that natural gas power plants generally emit less greenhouse gas and require less cooling water per MWh than coal-fired power plants, switching could enhance climate resilience, while also supporting climate change mitigation.
Despite the overall decrease in mean annual precipitation, Morocco is also experiencing more frequent heavy rainfall and floods. In 1980-2020 around 30 floods were recorded, and they are likely to become more intense and frequent with climate change. Heavy rainfall and floods can disrupt energy supply, damaging electricity grids and generation assets. For example, flash floods on 24 November 2014 resulted in power outages that left some 20000people without electricity.
Although Morocco is not under the threat of tropical cyclones, storms have been reported in Morocco. During the period 1980 to 2010, two storm-related events were registered.
Recently, the number of dust and sand storms has been increasing in North Africa. Given that the region is projected to be more exposed to droughts with climate change impacts, there could also be a rise in annual dust emissions and the frequency of dust and sand storms. Land degradation caused by human activity and natural causes also contributes to their increasing frequency.
Morocco is projected to experience a sea level rise of 0.4-0.7m by 2100 depending on climate scenario. Given that the country''s urban coastal zones are home to 70.2% of the population and 90% of industrial activities, sea level rise may become a direct threat to the economy and infrastructure. It could cause permanent inundation of the lowest lying coastlines in Morocco, while increasing the risks of coastal erosion. Of the total length of Morocco''s east Mediterranean coastline, 22% would be at very high risk and 42% at high risk by 2030.
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