In the STEPS, the stock of EVs across all modes except for two/three-wheelers (2/3Ws),1 grows from less than 45million in 2023 to 250million in 2030 and reaches 525million in 2035. As a result, in 2035, more than one in four vehicles on the road is electric. On average, the EV stock grows by 23% annually from 2023 to 2035.
In the APS, the stock of EVs (excluding 2/3Ws) reaches 585million in 2035, over 10% higher than in the STEPS, and 30% of the vehicle fleet (excluding 2/3Ws) is electric. Compared to the STEPS, the average annual growth in the EV fleet is only slightly higher, with an average 24% growth between 2023 and 2035. In the NZE Scenario, the fleet of EVs grows even more quickly, at an average annual rate of 27% to 2035, reaching 790million (excluding 2/3Ws).
In the STEPS, EV sales (excluding 2/3Ws) reach almost 45million in 2030 and close to 65million in 2035, up from around 14 million in 2023. The sales share of EVs grows from around 15% in 2023 to almost 40% in 2030 and over 50% in 2035 in the STEPS. In the APS, the sales shares are higher, approaching 45% in 2030 and two-thirds in 2035. In the NZE Scenario, EV sales shares accelerate over the next few years, reaching about 65% in 2030 and 95% in 2035.
The global sales shares of electric light-duty vehicles (LDVs), buses and trucks are fairly similar in both the STEPS and APS to 2030, suggesting that the gap between policy implementation and announced ambitions is small over the near term. This gap grows to 2035, given that many policies are focused on the near- to medium term, while strategy documents outlining ambitions tend to be longer-sighted.
Further, the gap between announced ambitions and a global trajectory to achieving net zero emissions by 2050 is larger than the policy implementation gap. In the NZE Scenario, 100% of light vehicle sales, including 2/3Ws, cars and vans, are zero-emission vehicles by 2035. This compares to an EV sales share of only around 75% of 2/3Ws and 70% of LDVs in the APS. Ambition for heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs), in particular, is lagging behind the net zero by 2050 pathway.
Light-duty vehicles (LDVs), including passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs), are expected to continue to make up the majority of EVs (excluding 2/3Ws) through 2035. This is a result of strong policy support, including light-duty vehicle fuel economy and CO2 standards, as well as the availability of EV models and, more generally, the sheer size of the LDV market. For example, over the past year, Canada and the UnitedKingdom implemented policies to increase zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales in 2030, targeting 60% and 80% of PLDVs, respectively.
As a result, electric LDV sales are projected to triple to over 43million in 2030 in the STEPS, accounting for 40% of total LDV sales. By 2035, sales reach 60million, representing a share of almost 55%.
In this scenario, the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) cars on the roads worldwide is set to decline over time as the number of electric cars grows. The stock of electric LDVs reaches about 245million in 2030, meaning that almost one in six LDVs on the road is electric. In 2035, electric LDV stock increases to 505million: approximately one out of three LDVs on the road.
In the APS, sales of electric LDVs reach 47million in 2030 and 75million in 2035, representing two-thirds of sales in 2035. This reflects government electrification ambitions and net zero pledges, such as the Zero Emission Vehicles Declaration to achieve 100% zero-emission LDV sales by 2040, and by 2035 in leading markets, which has been signed by 40national governments spanning six continents. The fleet of electric LDVs reaches more than 565million in 2035, representing one in three LDVs. Of these, 525million are electric PLDVs, with only 7% being LCVs.
China is set to remain the leading region for electric LDV sales in the STEPS, though its share in global sales is expected to shrink from almost 60% in 2023 to around 40% in 2030 and 2035. The relative decline in China''s global share is due in part to the United States nearly doubling its share of global electric LDV sales to around one-fifth in both 2030 and 2035, thanks to a combination of policy efforts and industry ramp-up (see below). Despite strong growth in electric LDV sales in the STEPS, Europe''s share of global sales remains broadly stable through 2035, at around 25%.
The stock of 2/3Ws is currently the most electrified among all road transport segments, with around 65million electric 2/3Ws on the road today, representing about 8% of the fleet. In the STEPS, the number of electric 2/3Ws reaches 210million by 2030 and 360million in 2035, over one-third of the total fleet.
Funding programmes of this kind, and heavy-duty vehicles regulations, including the EuropeanUnion''s revised CO2 emission standards for HDVs and California''s Advanced Clean Fleets, are expected to increase the sales shares of electric buses. In the STEPS, electric bus sales increase fourteen-fold from 2023 levels, to about half a million in 2035, representing 30% of bus sales. The stock reaches 4.5million in 2035 in the STEPS, or 20% of the total.
Such targets mean that in the APS, sales of electric buses in 2035 are almost 40% higher than in the STEPS, reaching almost 1million sales. One in four buses on the road in 2035 is electric. In the NZE Scenario, electric bus sales reach significantly higher levels: by 2035, almost 90% of bus sales are electric.
Zero emissions vehicles could achieve total cost of ownership parity in many HDV applications this decade, including long-haul trucks, according to recent research. And the adoption of stringent emissions standards could also help to make electric options more attractive by increasing the cost of ICE buses and trucks. Nevertheless, medium- and heavy-duty trucks may prove more difficult to electrify than other segments, in part due to the size and weight of their batteries, as well as charging requirements.
Recent emissions standards in the UnitedStates and European Union will support electric HDV adoption in the coming years. In the STEPS, sales increase more than 30-fold by 2035, albeit from around 54000 in 2023. As a result, more than 20% of medium- and heavy-duty truck sales are electric in 2035.
At COP28, six countries3 joined the Global Memorandum of Understanding on Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (Global MOU), bringing the total to 33 nations4 committed to reaching 100% zero-emission sales in 2040 and 30% by 2030. In aggregate, these signatories currently represent almost 25% of the global medium- and heavy-duty truck market. This brings the global electric truck sales share in the APS close to 30% in 2035.
China also has one of the highest stock shares of electric buses, with more than one in four buses being electric. By 2035, the sales share of electric buses increases to over 70% in both scenarios, up from 50% in 2023. While sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks are significantly lower than other road modes, China held over 90% of the world''s total global electric truck stock in 2023. Electric truck sales are projected to reach a sales share of almost 50% in 2035 in both scenarios.
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