This Initial Report describes the overall conclusions of the three studies and provides a synthesis of the work considered as a whole. Where relevant, this Initial Report also references and considers the findings and information provided by stakeholders and in other studies, such as those performed by the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO).
NYSERDA offers objective information and analysis, innovative programs, technical expertise, and support to help New Yorkers increase energy efficiency, save money, use renewable energy, and reduce reliance on fossil fuels. A public benefit corporation, NYSERDA has been advancing energy solutions and working to protect the environment since 1975.
The RNA, issued every two years, evaluates the future reliability of the New York electric grid considering forecasts of power demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, public policy and changes to the generation mix over a ten-year period. The report identifies a violation of reliability criteria in New York City in 2033 and highlights growing risks to electric system reliability statewide. According to the findings of the RNA, the identified New York City reliability need is 17 megawatts in the summer of 2033 and increases to 97 megawatts in the summer of 2034.
“Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO’s in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid,” said Zach Smith, Senior Vice President, System and Resource Planning. “In this RNA, we highlight several risk factors that could adversely affect system reliability in the months and years ahead.”
The project is supposed to be completed by 2026, and ISO officials warn that a delay in the project could mean there isn’t enough electric capacity in New York City starting in 2026. If the project is delayed ISO officials say there will need to be either new generation brought online or a decrease in projected demand.
“In December of 2022, Western New York experienced a devastating blizzard that knocked out electricity and left residents in their homes without heat,” Borrello said in his legislative justification. “The tragedy resulted in the loss of life of 47 New Yorkers. As we work to modernize our grid, ensuring the safety of New Yorkers is paramount so that we may prevent such devastation in the future.”
ISO officials say on the coldest days, natural gas distribution companies prioritize residential heating and limit the fuel available to generators without firm contracts. The coldest days correspond to peak winter demand periods when the gas fleet is needed most.
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