Energy transition vietnam

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All articles published by MDPI are made immediately available worldwide under an open access license. No special permission is required to reuse all or part of the article published by MDPI, including figures and tables. For articles published under an open access Creative Common CC BY license, any part of the article may be reused without permission provided that the original article is clearly cited. For more information, please refer to https://

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Nguyen, M.P.; Ponomarenko, T.; Nguyen, N. Energy Transition in Vietnam: A Strategic Analysis and Forecast. Sustainability 2024, 16, 1969. https://doi /10.3390/su16051969

Nguyen MP, Ponomarenko T, Nguyen N. Energy Transition in Vietnam: A Strategic Analysis and Forecast. Sustainability. 2024; 16(5):1969. https://doi /10.3390/su16051969

Nguyen, Minh Phuong, Tatiana Ponomarenko, and Nga Nguyen. 2024. "Energy Transition in Vietnam: A Strategic Analysis and Forecast" Sustainability 16, no. 5: 1969. https://doi /10.3390/su16051969

Nguyen, M. P., Ponomarenko, T., & Nguyen, N. (2024). Energy Transition in Vietnam: A Strategic Analysis and Forecast. Sustainability, 16(5), 1969. https://doi /10.3390/su16051969

Vietnam''s long-awaited Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) has recently been approved, setting ambitious renewable-energy goals for 2030—similar to the recommendations for Vietnam to embrace renewables set out in our 2019 article, "Exploring an alternative pathway for Vietnam''s energy future." These goals are focused on boosting renewable energy while reducing the country''s reliance on coal. This presents Vietnam with a conundrum: its renewable-energy projects are not consistently bankable at present, held back by regulations and the market.

This article is a collaborative effort by Jonathan Deffarges, Bruce Delteil, Takuya Hata, Van Pham, Suvojoy Sengupta, Kunal Tara, and Hang Vu, representing views from McKinsey''s Electric Power & Natural Gas Practice.

We did not account for the nonmonetary benefits achieved by RE50/RE100, such as reduced air pollution, greater health benefits, and reduced physical climate risks through decarbonization. These benefits are significant for Vietnam.

This outcome is not a forecast but rather a road map that illustrates how national ministries, provinces, and corporate stakeholders could collaborate across different sectors to decrease the cost of electricity by 2030 and increase penetration of renewables.

We consider the exploration of this road map to be valuable for two reasons: first, it demonstrates that Vietnam has the potential to deploy renewables at a greater scale—economically—than it currently does, and second, the road map lays out specific steps that public- and private-sector stakeholders could take to make this happen.

How can Vietnam achieve this? It needs to invest in, build, and integrate more solar and wind power to allow the country to provide 50 or 100 percent renewable energy (RE50/RE100) in an economically viable way—thus making it more attractive to manufacturers, investors, and renewable-energy developers. In this article, we focus on feasible steps that energy stakeholders could take to achieve this goal and highlight how collaboration between the public and private sectors could help accelerate renewable-energy development (see sidebar, "Our methodology").

If Vietnam cannot transition to renewables soon, it will likely face significant risks to its energy security, growth and development, and current economic base, as well as physical hazards from climate change—this could come at Vietnam''s expense while its neighbors prosper. The risks, as described below, raise the stakes for the urgent deployment of renewables at scale.

Vietnam needs to unlock its renewable-energy development as quickly as possible to reach the government''s commitment to net zero by 2050 and the bold PDP8 goals, which aim for wind, solar, and other renewable sources (excluding hydropower) to cover at least 32 percent of the country''s energy needs by 2030.6"Decision no. 896/QD-TTg on approving national strategy for climate change until 2050," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, 2022; "Vietnam''s $135 billion power plan for 2030," World Economic Forum, May 23, 2023.

About Energy transition vietnam

About Energy transition vietnam

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