Burundi Economic Outlook. Recent macroeconomic and financial developments. Real GDP grew 2.8% in 2023, up from 1.8% in 2022, driven mainly by industry (up 4.7%) and services (up 2.7%) on the supply side and by public investment and private consumption on the demand side. Contact online >>
Burundi Economic Outlook. Recent macroeconomic and financial developments. Real GDP grew 2.8% in 2023, up from 1.8% in 2022, driven mainly by industry (up 4.7%) and services (up 2.7%) on the supply side and by public investment and private consumption on the demand side.
The industrial sector (1.2% growth vs. 2.7% in 2023) and services (2.0% vs. 2.6% in 2023) will be most affected. Over 2025-26, growth is anticipated to average 3.9%, supported by agriculture, mining, and government spending. Inflation averaged 27.1% in 2023, due to surging food and fuel prices.
Burundi faces significant challenges marked by political instability and rampant corruption. High public debt raises concerns about fiscal health. The country''s largely agricultural economy is affected by energy shortages and minimal foreign
Top Export (2022) Gold $53.4M. Top Destination (2022) United Arab Emirates $59.9M. In 2022, Burundi exported a total of $187M, making it the number 190 exporter in the world. During the last five reported years the exports of Burundi have changed by -$7.26M from $194M in 2017 to $187M in 2022.
Burundi has made significant progress in terms of the quality of and access to education. Since the introduction of free primary education in 2005, the gross enrollment in primary education reached 118.4% during the 2022/2023 school year without significant variation between provinces, gender, or level of income.
President Evariste Ndayishimiye was elected in 2020 for a seven-year term of office. The ruling party, CNDD-FDD, has dominated the political scene since 2005, with a large majority in the National Assembly (87 out of 123 seats) and the Senate (38 out of 39 seats). Legislative elections are planned for May 2025 and will follow the new country''s administrative structure which reduces the numbers of provinces from 18 to 5 and the new number of parliamentarians will be 103.
Economic growth accelerated to 2.7% in 2023, up from 1.8% in 2022, supported by favorable rainfall and increased investment. However, growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2024, as persistent fuel and foreign exchange shortages continue to weigh on the economy. The industrial sector (1.2% growth vs. 2.7% in 2023) and services (2.0% vs. 2.6% in 2023) will be most affected. Over 2025-26, growth is anticipated to average 3.9%, supported by agriculture, mining, and government spending.
Inflation averaged 27.1% in 2023, due to surging food and fuel prices. It is forecasted to ease to 22.1% in 2024, as improved rainfall and restrictions on cereal exports help lower food prices.
Fiscal consolidation is expected to continue, with the deficit projected to shrink to 7.1% of GDP in 2024, owing to nonrecurring spending cuts and improved revenue collection. By 2026, the deficit is anticipated to fall to 4.7%, supported by tax digitization and reductions in non-essential spending. Public debt, projected at 70.6% of GDP in 2024, is expected to decline to 67.4% of GDP by 2026.
The World Bank Group''s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) focuses on two priority areas: (i) strengthening human capital; and (ii) strengthening the fundamental foundation for economic and social resilience. Macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and effective governance guided by citizen engagement are the foundation for these priority areas.
Burundi benefits from World Bank Group grant financing through the International Development Association (IDA). The current World Bank portfolio in Burundi comprises 16 national projects and 4 regional projects for a total of $1.84 billion. The breakdown by sector for the national and regional portfolio is as follows:
Agriculture and food 4.1%Digital transformation 5.1%Education 17.7%Energy and extractives 23.7%Environment and natural resources 0.3%Finance, competitiveness and innovation12.7%Health, nutrition and population 8%Poverty and equity 1.1%Social Protection 11.1%Social sustainability and inclusion 3.3%Transport 6.6%Urban, Disaster risk management, Resilience and Land: 6.2%
The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has been increasing its work in Burundi focused on three priority sectors with opportunities for private sector engagement: Finance, agribusiness, and sustainable energy. IFC is working with several financial institutions to increase access to finance for small businesses and trade. To support increased access to sustainable energy in Burundi, IFC is working on opportunities to develop and finance energy generation and distribution projects.
The Burundi Early Grade Learning Project PAADESCO (2018-2024, $40 million) aims to improve student learning and progression in early grades in Burundi. Through the project:
1,880,000 Math, Kirundi and Environmental Studies manuals distributed with a ratio of 1:1 for all students in grades 1-4 for a total of 5,641,170 manuals nationwide.
88,616 Math, Kirundi and Environmental studies teacher guides distributed for all teachers in grades 1-4 with a ratio of 1:1 for a grand total of 354,464 guides nationwide.
A final learning assessment revealed significant improvements in public school Grade 2 students'' reading and numeracy competency: with reading competency in Kirundi increasing from 78.8 percent to 80.4 percent, and numeracy from 76.6 percent to 90.5 percent, aligning with strong results in international PASEC assessments.
The Rusumo Falls Regional Hydropower Project (2013-2025, $113.30 million for Burundi) aims to increase the supply of electricity to the national grids of Burundi, Tanzania and Rwanda. Through this project:
Burundi is already benefiting from an additional 27.6 MW (20% of its installed capacity) of power directly connected to its national grid through a 220 kV transmission line.
The local communities of Muyinga and Kirundo have benefitted from the Local Development Program (drinking water supply, health centers, school, etc.) including: (i) rehabilitation and extension of drinking water supply systems totaling a linear of 60 km and (ii) construction of 60 primary schools composed of equipped classrooms and administrative blocks (iii) 1 storage shed, (iv) 4 health centers (including facilities), (v) 2 youth centers, (vi) 1 court of justice, (vii) 2 communal offices and (viii) soil and water conservation - Giteranyi buffer zone at Lake Rweru.
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