MITEI''s three-year Future of Energy Storage study explored the role that energy storage can play in fighting climate change and in the global adoption of clean energy grids. Replacing fossil fuel-based power generation with power generation from wind and solar resources is a key strategy for decarbonizing electricity.
A recent study reported that several TWh of storage capacity will be needed for 43–81 % renewable penetration by adding together all the short-duration storage (<12 h), but this value will be much higher if more than 80 % renewable penetration is reached with the need for long-duration storage (Fig. 3) [4].
The core objective of this paper is to investigate the costs and the future market prospects of different electricity storage options, such as short-term battery storage and long-term storage as pumped hydro storage, as well as hydrogen and methane from power-to-gas conversion technologies.
This technology strategy assessment on lead acid batteries, released as part of the Long-Duration Storage Shot, contains the findings from the Storage Innovations (SI) 2030 strategic initiative. The objective of SI 2030 is to develop specific and quantifiable research, development, and deployment (RD&D) pathways to achieve the targets
2030: Low-Cost Long Duration Storage Long Duration Storage Shot What RD&D Pathways get us to the 2030 Long Duration Storage Shot? $0.05/ kWh Levelized Cost of Storage
The ongoing decline in the cost of battery packs is crucial to this. It enables electric vehicles to compete on cost with their internal combustion engine counterparts in more and more use cases while making stationary battery energy storage a cost-competitive choice for the provision of flexibility and secure capacity.
The projected rise in battery production leads to a strong increase in demand for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, or manganese. Increasing the supply of these critical minerals in lockstep with demand is essential in order for battery costs to continue to decline.
Long-term projections of the development of the global energy system foresee a dramatic increase in the relevance of battery storage for the energy system. This is driven primarily by the proliferation of electric vehicles and a growing demand for electricity storage, connected to rising shares of variable renewables in the electricity supply mix.
At the same time, electric vehicles are projected to continue to make strong inroads in the transport sector, leading to a dramatic increase in battery production geared toward the automotive sector.
Across scenarios, major outlooks published recently foresee a rapid global expansion of variable wind and solar PV-based electricity generation, as well as a rising share of electricity in total final energy consumption (see, e.g., [7, 9, 12, 26,27,28, 30]). The integration of these rising volumes of variable electricity requires key enabling technologies such as battery storage to grow as well.
This chapter provides a detailed look at recent projections for the development of global and European demand for battery storage out to 2050 and analyzes the underlying drivers. It draws primarily on the International Energy Agency (IEA)''s World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2022 [26], to which the three authors contributed.
As a result of the growing demand for batteries, the demand for critical minerals used in battery production, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, or manganese, is expected to increase substantially as well.
The projections and findings on the prospects for and drivers of growth of battery energy storage technologies presented below are primarily the results of analyses performed for the IEA WEO 2022 [26] and related IEA publications.
The IEA WEO 2022 explores the potential development of global energy demand and supply until 2050 using a scenario-based approach. It does so through three scenarios. It should be noted that these scenarios do not represent predictions but rather analyze in detail possible versions of how the energy system might develop given different policy targets and assumptions on their implementation ([26], p. 105).
The first two scenarios, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), are descriptive. The third scenario, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario), is prescriptive:
STEPS describes the development of the energy system considering only the current policy setting, based on a country- and sector-specific appraisal of policies that are in place or have been announced as of late 2022.
APS assumes that all climate commitments, including nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and country-level net zero targets that have been announced as of late 2022, are achieved in full and on time (even though supporting policies may not yet have been put into place), representing a more aggressive emission-reduction pathway than STEPS.
The NZE Scenario describes a cost-effective pathway for the global energy system to reach net zero emissions by 2050, maintaining at least a 50% probability of keeping the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius until 2050 while achieving universal access to modern energy services (primarily electricity and clean cooking) by 2030 ([15], p. 48, [26], p. 463).
Storage technologies and potential power system applications based on discharge times. Note: T and D deferral = transmission and distribution investment deferral. (Source: IEA [22], p. 64)
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