South Africans looking to lessen their impact on the environment can look forward to a handful of new electric vehicle (EV) models set to launch locally in 2024.
Until now, options have been fairly scarce, with just a few models available on South African roads from major brands. The main issue is pricing, thanks to high taxes. The cheapest new EV you can currently buy in South Africa is the GWM Ora 03 at R686,950. That could change.
Industry players are eagerly awaiting government announcements on incentives and subsidies during the 2024 Budget Speech in February 2024. Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana has already pledged support for the industry’s transition to new energy vehicles, but the specifics remain undisclosed.
The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) has advocated for subsidies of up to R80,000 per EV to spur local adoption. The success of EVs in South Africa might hinge on these potential price cuts, as automakers aim to convince customers to make the switch.
Jac is set to introduce the T9 battery electric vehicle (BEV), marking South Africa’s second true electric bakkie. Unveiled at the Shanghai Automotive Show, the T9 BEV boasts a 4×4 drivetrain and an 88kWh battery, offering over 400km of range. This robust electric bakkie will grab the attention of South Africans, combining practicality with some sustainability.
Regarded as “China’s Tesla”, BYD will bring its Dolphin electric vehicle to South Africa in 2024. With a reputation as the world’s best-selling electric hatchback, the Dolphin has a shot at becoming South Africa’s most affordable EV. Overseas pricing has it starting at around R725,000 but if that tax credit thing is sorted out, it’ll squeeze in below the Ora 03 (which is probably also due a price drop, in the case of a tax credit).
Lotus is entering the South African electric vehicle market with the Eletre, a high-performance, fully-electric SUV. With impressive specifications, including 450kW/710Nm engine power/torque, 4.5 second 0-100km/h acceleration, and 600km range, the Eletre caters to affluent performance car enthusiasts — of which there are many in South Africa.
In true Maserati fashion, it''s set to make a statement with the Grecale Folgore, a high-performance, fully-electric SUV heading to South Africa in 2024. It''ll feature a powerful 373kW+/800Nm+ engine, a 0-100km/h time of 4.1 seconds, and a 500km range. Of course, you''ll also have the fanciest car at the charging station.
Mini is expanding its EV lineup with the electrified Countryman SUV in 2024. With a beefy 230kW/494Nm engine, a 0-100km/h time of 5.6 seconds, and 433km of range, the Mini Countryman SE adds a dash of electrification to the iconic Mini design, appealing to enthusiasts looking for more space than the Mini Cooper SE. The greener drive may only be a bonus at this point.
Swedish automaker Volvo is making a significant contribution to the EV scene in 2024, introducing its EX30 and EX90 models. The EX30, touted as Volvo’s most affordable EV, promises rapid acceleration with a 0-100km/h time of 3.6 seconds. The EX90, with a 205kW/490Nm engine, offers a generous 580km range, showcasing Volvo’s commitment to varied EV options.
While this list is accurate as of right now, don’t expect it to be exhaustive. There are bound to be other EVs from other marques making landfall on the South African coastline at some point in 2024. We’ll cover those as they turn up.
Road transport remains a key source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in South Africa. Nevertheless, South Africa has committed to the Paris Agreement, and is determined to transition to new-energy vehicles. This commitment is poised to accelerate electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the near future, despite some significant challenges. Thanks to its large mineral reserves, South Africa has even more opportunities on the horizon.
South Africa''s overall auto sector is growing. In 2021, the automotive industry contributed 4.3% to GDP, with vehicle and component exports making up 12.5% of total exports. In 2023, new vehicle sales rose by 5% YoY to 265,970 units by June 2023, exports increased by 4% to 172,836 units YoY, and production grew by 10% to 284,035 units.
South Africa's robust auto assembly industry is heavily reliant on exports to the European Union (EU), particularly Germany. As a result, the EU's 2035 ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles strongly incentivizes South African manufacturers to transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs).
Within South Africa, NEV sales have been slow, but are now gaining momentum. Data from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) shows that NEVs accounted for nearly 1.2% of YTD June 2023 sales. Notably, NEV sales surged by 47.1% YoY in June 2023.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) constitute a minor but fast-growing segment in South Africa''s NEV market. In the first half of 2023, South Africa saw the sale of 502 BEVs, matching the total number of BEVs sold during the entirety of 2022. This suggests the potential for over 1,000 BEV sales in a single year.
As depicted in the chart below, plugless hybrids (HEVs) have experienced a significant surge in sales since 2022. This momentum continues into the first half of 2023; in 2022, a record-breaking 4,050 plugless hybrids were sold, and 2,561 have been sold in 2023 so far. This increase can be attributed to the growing availability of plugless hybrids, such as the Toyota Corolla Cross hybrid. As OEMs actively promote plugless hybrid models, consumer interest and purchases are aligning with this trend.
Private passenger vehicles comprise the largest segment in South Africa''s market, but electrifying them poses significant challenges. Nevertheless, 506 BEVs were sold in 2022 for private passenger purposes.
The second-largest segment consists of light commercial vehicles, primarily for last-mile delivery services. Several OEMs are entering this market, including Takealot, Spar, DPD, Skynet, and DHL.
Another emerging category is electric 2- and 3-wheelers, projected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.35% and 14.38%, respectively, by 2030. Due to South Africa's high urbanization rate, this sector is poised for growth, primarily driven by fleet owners who want to save money on fuel.
The electric public transportation sector is also gaining ground. South Africa has approximately 65,239 buses and minibuses, and 356,485 minibus taxis, that could be replaced with electric buses. The City of Cape Town has already successfully tested and deployed electric buses for daily commuter use.
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