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I am professional energy journalist, writer and editor who has been chronicling the renewables and fossil fuel energy sectors since 2008. I am passionate about the energy transition, so much so...
East Timor has scrapped a failed plan to export LNG, only to launch another dubious gas-based solution to decarbonise the island''s tiny power grid. Surely wind, solar and batteries present a more cost effective and cleaner option than LNG imports, even in today''s well-supplied LNG market?
How much consideration has also been given to the geopolitical issues of being reliant on imported fuels (not to mention logistical, as we've seen in the U.S. when storms knock out oil refining or imports into the Gulf)?
There is a geopolitical angle in there, with potential involvement of US Embassy in the project. From the article: "China’s growing presence in the region spooks the State Department andsome Australian politicianstoo, so an American-funded regasification terminal fed by US LNG could form a bulwark against Beijing’s burgeoning sphere of influence. As things stand that remains a highly distant possibility, but when an infrastructure project acquires a geopolitical dimension this can skew the priorities of host governments."
"Replacing Timor-Leste’s three thermal power generators – which together are less than 270 MW – with a combination ofwind,solar powerand battery storage does not seem to have been considered, despite plunging costs and Timor’s abundant renewable resources."
Bob, importing LNG to meet a demand anchor of <270MW makes no economic sense. You need a much larger load to justify the capital investment in the terminal and regasification facilities. Locking a small developing island nation into fossil fuel imports for 20+ years and putting it at the mercy of global commodity marketsdoesn't seem to be a very wise move, climate change or not.
Renewables + storage can and will be viable for small, isolated grids in sunny windy locations such as such as Timor much sooner than many mainstream analysts predict. What's the alternative, leave the plants running on expensive and dirty heavy fuel oil?
Seb, there isno grid, municipality, or microgridin the world that runs on "renewables + batteries". Though the mainstream analysts at battery manufacturersare more than happy to takeadvantage of that comfortable fantasy, a fantasy it will remain.
Maybe it's necessary to have livedin an area with unreliable electricity to appreciate why 'snot a matter of cost: batteries and solar panels could be free,and it willstill never happen. Why? Whether you live in East Timor or Syracuse, allowing alllights, computers and cellphonesto go dark-in hospitals,police stations, factories, banks, and businesses, for an indefinite period of time -is not an option.
Last August In California,the lights did go out in several areas of the state, if only for hours, and it was hilarious to see residents of wealthy San Jose so frightened and helpless,like the city had been occupied by an invading force. It weassimply becausehad takenreliable, dispatchableelectricity for granted.
If fuel oil is the only alternative to unreliable electricity, it's the best alternative for residents of East Timor (ask someone who lives inSan Jose). They may havetostock up onfuel oil, but they will never, ever have to worry about all the lights going out.
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