This Outlook explores a Sustainable Africa Scenario (SAS) in which Africa rides these shifting tides to achieve all African energy-related development goals on time and in full. This includes universal access to modern energy services by 2030 and the full implementation of all African climate pledges. Realising all of these goals is a formidable undertaking. African countries need to take the lead with clear strategies and policies, while international institutions must reinforce their commitment to significantly increase their levels of support.
The goal of universal access to modern energy calls for investment of USD25billion per year. This is around 1% of global energy investment today, and similar to the cost of building just one large liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal. Stimulating more investment requires international support aided by stronger national institutions on the ground laying out clear access strategies – only around 25 African countries have them today.
Achieving Africa''s energy and climate goals means more than doubling energy investment this decade. This would take it over USD190billion each year from 2026 to 2030, with two-thirds going to clean energy. The share of energy investment in Africa''s GDP rises to 6.1% in the 2026-30 period, slightly above the average for emerging market and developing economies. But Africa''s energy investment in that period is still only around 5% of the global total in the IEA''s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
Africa''s energy future requires stronger efforts on the ground that are backed by global support. The COP27 Climate Change Conference in Egypt in late 2022 provides a crucial platform for African leaders to work globally to identify ways to drive these changes. This decade is critical, not only for global climate action, but also for the foundational investments that will allow Africa – home to the world''s youngest population – to flourish in the decades to come.
An energy system centred on renewable energy can help resolve many of Africa’s social, economic, health and environmental challenges. A profound energy transition is not only feasible, it is essential for a climate-safe future in which sustainable development prerogatives are met. Renewables are key to overcoming energy poverty, providing needed energy services without damaging human health or ecosystems, and enabling a transformation of economies in support of development and industrialisation.
Africa is extraordinarily diverse, and no single approach will advance its energy future. But efforts must be made to build modern, resilient and sustainable energy systems across the continent to avoid trapping economies and societies in increasingly obsolete energy systems that burden them with stranded assets and limited economic prospects.
This report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) developed in collaboration with the African Development Bank (AfDB) sets out the opportunities at hand, while also acknowledging the challenges Africa faces. It lays out a pathway to a renewables-based energy system and shows that the transition promises substantial gains in GDP, employment, and human welfare in each region of the continent.
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