Port vila increased renewable energy penetration

The article is structured as follows. First, the article analyses factors that may affect the likelihood of countries joining an international supply-side coalition, with a view to identifying possible participants (Sect. 2). The article then explores several scenarios for the development of an international supply-side coalition, and identifies the main environmental and macroeconomic effects in these scenarios (Sect. 3). Next, the article discusses the implications for further international cooperation on supply-side climate policy (Sect. 4), before drawing conclusions (Sect. 5).

Building on these studies, and with a view to providing input into the modelling presented in Sect. 3, we have clustered countries according to the likelihood of joining a supply-side coalition. Section 2.2 explains how we have conducted this analysis, and presents the country-region clusters.

Plot A presents principal component analysis (PCA) results for oil, B for coal, and C for all fossil fuels. In each plot, the colours correspond to the likelihood of that cluster joining a supply-side coalition. The clusters are coded as "Frontrunners" (dark green), "Followers" (light green), "Laggards" (orange), and "Reluctants" (dark red). For additional information, including country-region codes, data used in the cluster analysis, variable averages for clusters, and further information on Fig. 1, see the Supplementary Materials.

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