PNG is ranked as the tenth most climate-vulnerable country. The country's 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) has outlined projected climate impacts that Papua New Guinea is expected to experience in the coming years, recreated below:[3] Contact online >>
PNG is ranked as the tenth most climate-vulnerable country. The country''s 2020 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) has outlined projected climate impacts that Papua New Guinea is expected to experience in the coming years, recreated below:[3]
PNG has experienced significant economic growth since the turn of the century, resulting in an 88.2% increase in emissions between 2000 and 2015.[3]
Many LNG projects under construction throughout the world are having trouble securing SPAs. Experts from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis believe that by the time the Papua LNG project comes online, the global natural gas market may be saturated which would lower anticipated pricing. Moreover, the International Energy Agency predicts a 55% decrease in gas demand by 2050.[4] Because of this, the project, and natural gas buildout in Papua New Guinea as a whole, presents significant financial risks.
These risks are amplified by Papua New Guinea''s current finances. While the country has the right to acquire 22.5% stake of Papua LNG upon the project''s approval, Papua New Guinea''s severe debt (estimated at USD $51.2 billion) makes this challenging and risks reallocation away from social and economic spending to cover investment costs.[4]
As of 2022, Papua New Guinea had an installed capacity of about 580 MW total, broken down in the table below.[2]
By 2030, PNG aims to increase renewables to 78% of the national energy mix. Papua New Guinea aims to transition its energy sector to carbon neutrality by:[3]
Moreover, Papua New Guinea has outlined four main actions to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts):[3]
The Government of Papua New Guinea also aims to increase electricity access to 70% of the population by 2030, a goal which will require connections of 100,000 households per year.[8]
As of 2022, the Climate Change Development Authority of Papua New Guinea had identified 15 renewable energy projects in the pipeline totaling 427.275 MW, as well as 21 proposed projects totaling 45.15 MW. If all projects fully came to fruition at their projected installed capacities, these projects alone could provide 78% of the country''s grid-connected electricity by the end of the decade. All projects in the pipeline (both in-development and simply proposed) are summarized in the table below:[2]
According to the International Finance Corporation''s Powering the Pacific report, PNG has vast untapped renewable energy potential. Estimates are as follows:[9]
Papua New Guinea assesses climate adaptation efforts by looking at the health, agricultural, transportation, and infrastructure indicators. Government leaders anticipate the following outcomes:[3]
According to Global Energy Monitor''s Global Oil and Gas Extraction Tracker (March 2024 release), Papua New Guinea has five discovered oil and gas extraction projects: the Pasca Oil and Gas Field, the Stanley Oil and Gas Field, the Kutubu Oil Project, the P''nyang Gas Field, and the Elk-Antelope Gas Field. Of those, only the Kutubu Oil Project is operational, and the Papua LNG project will extract from the Elk-Antelope Gas Field.[10][11]
Papua LNG is only the second large-scale natural gas project in the country and, if completed, would rival Indonesia''s gas exports. However, by the time the project is expected to come online, experts are projecting a glut in gas prices due to flooded markets. In essence, there is little revenue certainty for the project.[4]
The project has received explicit support from French President Emmanual Macron, primarily for its potential to replace coal-fired generation with gas.[12]
The pipeline will transport gas from the Elk-Antelope Field (north of Baimuru and Kerema) to project facilities near Port Moresby. 260 km, or 81%, of the pipeline is offshore. Planned upstream facilities for the Papua LNG project are slated for construction within areas of dense jungle with nearby access to the Purari River.[11]
TotalEnergies and project partners aim to have financing secured by 2025 with the first delivery of gas by 2028.[13]
Papua LNG is estimated to cost USD $13 billion. As of April 2024, no sale and purchase agreements of non-binding heads of agreement supply deals have been reached, which increases the project''s financial risk. This means that the project lacks sales and assets financiers in which to lend against. For comparison, ExxonMobil''s PNG LNG project has secured commercial agreements for 62% of the project''s nameplate capacity approximately six months before the project published its Final Investment Decision.[4]
PNG''s energy sector is the country''s largest source of emissions at about 87.7% of total emissions (excluding land use and deforestation).[3] A large portion of PNG''s grid is reliant on diesel fuel for power which can be far more expensive than alternatives. In agricultural uses, diesel generators are approximately 150% more expensive than biomass-powered generators and 50% more expensive than paired solar-storage systems.[2]
In addition, gas fields and oil basins have been found below biodiversity hotspots like the Kikori River Basin and Purari River,[18] both of which could be damaged through fossil fuel exploration and extraction.
Papua New Guinea is rich in several metals necessary for clean energy technology. Specifically, Papua New Guinea exports copper, nickel, and cobalt, and the mining and quarrying industries are projected to increase by 6.9% in 2023.[19]
Approximately 15% of workers in PNG are employed formally in forestry, fishing, and commercial agriculture, whereas the remaining 85% are employed informally and largely work in subsistence agriculture.[3]
Skills development in areas of installation is crucial. In particular, women, communities, workers, and professionals must receive training in installations, maintenance, and end-of-life processes so community members are better able to manage their electricity systems.[2]
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